Published 9 August 2021
Basseterre
Buckie Got It, St. Kitts and Nevis News Source
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INFORMATION STATEMENT
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
8:45 PM ECT SUN AUG 8 2021
…DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
AREA…
GIVEN THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER AL94 WILL BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA AND EVEN HIGHER
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE, IF IT WERE
TO DEVELOP INTO A STORM, IT IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT
EXACTLY WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM, AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING,
AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, DISTURBANCE AL94 POSES LITTLE
THREAT, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE QUICKLY AND REQUIRE QUICK ACTION
BY RESIDENTS TO PROTECT LIFE PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY
FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94, WHICH HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 24-HOURS AND
IMPACT THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 8 PM ECT OR 0000 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 15 MPH. A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BRINGING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
LATE MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FURTHER GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TUESDAY
AND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE BY FRIDAY.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WHILE THE DISTURBANCE IS OVER OR NEAR THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT
THIS TIME, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL REQUIRE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT BE ISSUED.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94
CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED, IN THE
EVENT THAT QUICK ACTION IS REQUIRED TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY
AND LIVELIHOOD.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 9 AM TOMORROW OR SOONER, IF
REQUIRED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
