Published 28 August 2022
Basseterre
Buckie Got It, St.Kitts and Nevis News Source
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT ON AL91 (28th August,2022)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 11:00 AM ECT SUN AUG 28 2022
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE FULL IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, AT THIS TIME. AL91 IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED
IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1238 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST.KITTS.
AL91 IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 MPH. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST FOR AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS WEEK.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, AL91 WILL POSSIBLY BE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE; THERE IS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM. NOTWITHSTANDING, IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE, THE IMPACTS, IF ANY.
NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS, IF CALLED UPON TO DO SO. THE THREAT IS MINOR, AT THIS TIME, BUT IT COULD INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 8 PM ECT OR SOONER, IF NEEDED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN/CECIL MATTHEW
