Published 14 September 2022
Basseterre
Buckie Got It St. Kitts and Nevis News Source
Tropical Depression 7 Alert Statement #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ALERT STATEMENT
WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:30 AM ECT WED 14 SEP 2022
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AND
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IN OUR
MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.
IT IS A BIT TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE FULL IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WITH HIGH
CERTAINTY. HOWEVER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY ON
FRIDAY AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS, AND
MINOR FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND MINOR DISRUPTIONS
TO DAILY LIFE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
OR 848 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AS
A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE
ISLANDS BEING AFFECTED BY STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS, AND MINOR FLOODING
FROM POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. NOTWITHSTANDING, IT IS A BIT EARLY
TO SAY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, THE EVENTUAL PATH, SIZE, AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
AND HENCE, THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM PASSING
NORTH SIMILAR TO EARL.
NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME; BUT WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS, IF CALLED UPON TO DO SO. THE THREAT IS MINOR, AT THIS TIME, BUT IT COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE/MEDIUM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 6 PM ECT 2200 UTC THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
FORECASTER
DALE DESTIN/LETITIA HUMPHREYS
