Buckie Got It News Source
Basseterre
Published 22 July 2023
WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 2:50 PM ECT SATURDAY JULY 22 2023
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95, WHICH IS LIKELY TO PASS SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH, SIZE AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, AL95 POSES LITTLE THREAT TO THE ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, TO BE SAFE, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE UNTIL IT IS OUT OF THE AREA.
AT 2 PM ECT OR 1800 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS AND THE SYSTEM HAS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS AND 60 PERCENT IN SEVEN DAYS.
BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS, THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT THE NEAREST POINT TO THE AREA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT IS LIKELY TO BE A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COULD BRING STORM-FORCE GUSTS TO THE ISLANDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. IMPACTS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA; HOWEVER, AN ALERT IS POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED.
AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 2 PM TOMORROW, OR SOONER IF REQUIRED. FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
