Published 4 September 2023
Basseterre
Buckie Got It, St Kitts Nevis News Source
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
2:00 PM ECT MONDAY SEP 04 2023
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 COULD PASS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUES
TO ACTIVELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
AL95, WHICH IS STILL VERY FAR AWAY, BUT IT COULD BE IN OR NEAR
THE AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WHILE THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT AL95 WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, IN THE COMING WEEK, THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGHLY UNRELIABLE DUE TO ITS FAR
DISTANCE FROM THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, A MAJORITY OF MODEL
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRE OF WHAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY PASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. HENCE, AT THIS EARLY STAGE, THE
REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT AL95 POSES
LITTLE THREAT TO THE ISLANDS. NEVERTHELESS, IT’S IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS NEW
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY, WE
STRONGLY RECOMMEND HAVING YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN
PREPARED AND READY.
ADDITIONALLY, PLEASE STAY ACTIVELY VIGILANT AND MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE CLOSELY.
AT 2 PM ECT OR 1800 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 1898 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST AND AL95 IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 48 HOURS. BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS, THE
SYSTEM COULD BE AT THE NEAREST POINT TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT COULD BE A
HURRICANE. MOST OF THE HAZARDOUS WINDS COULD STAY CLEAR OF
THE ISLANDS BUT IMPACT ON THE ISLANDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THINGS WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME. PLEASE NOTE THAT NO
ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA; HOWEVER, AN ALERT IS LIKELY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE AL95 AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE
SEASON PLANS PREPARED.
AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 2 PM TOMORROW, OR SOONER IF
REQUIRED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
