Published 6 September 2023
Basseterre
Buckie Got It Media Source
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM LEE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:25 AM ECT WED, SEP 6, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
LEE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND
LEE COULD BRING SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE MONITOR AREA OF CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE ISSUING OF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH SOMETIME THURSDAY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FORECAST TRACK OF LEE REMAINS PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE MAINLY TO ITS NOTABLE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, MOST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THAT THE CENTRE WILL LIKELY PASS A RELATIVELY SAFE DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, IN THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM POSES A MINOR THREAT TO THE ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS, RESULTING IN MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. IT’S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY, WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND HAVING YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND READY TO IMPLEMENT AT SHORT NOTICE. ADDITIONALLY, PLEASE STAY ACTIVELY VIGILANT AND MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS CYCLONE CLOSELY.
AT 5 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1229 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF ST.KITTS AND NEVIS OR ABOUT 1460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND LEE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL STORM LEE COULD BE NEAR THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED BY HAZARDOUS SEAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF MINIMAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY, REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PATH, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 11 AM. FORECASTER
BERNELL SIMON
