Published 14 October 2023
Basseterre
Buckie Got It, St Kitts Nevis News Source
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
3:25 PM ECT SATURDAY OCT 14 2023
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO THE DISTANCE AWAY AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE, THERE IS INHERENTLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AL94.
NOTWITHSTANDING, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM POSES LITTLETHREAT TO THE ISLANDS, AT THIS TIME. THIS THREAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. TO BE SAFE, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE DISTURBANCE.
AT 2 PM ECT OR 1800 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 32.0 WEST OR ABOUT 2061 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 13 MPH. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BASED ON THE FORECAST MODELS, THE CENTRE OF WHAT COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE TAMMY COULD BE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OR SATURDAY. NEVERTHELESS, IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, AN ALERT IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY, IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT PATH.
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. ALL ARE ALSO STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO STAY PREPARED FOR THE REST OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN BY 2 PM TOMORROW, OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
Valid up to 8 pm Sunday 15th October 2023.
Weather Bulletin
Issued at: 5pm Saturday, 14th October 2023
Present Weather: Fair skies
Winds: CALM
Temperature: 31°C / 87°F Max Temp: 32°C / 90°F Humidity: 74%
Sea Level Pressure: 1012.0mbs or 29.88″
24hr rainfall at the R.L. Bradshaw Intl. at 2pm: Nil
Amount of rainfall for the month of October: 54.0mm / 2.13″
Sunrise: Tom 6:03am Sunset: Tom 5:50pm
Weather Forecast Valid until 8 pm Tomorrow.
Winds: East-southeast at 3 to 14 mph becoming lighter and variable at times.
Seas: 0.6 to 1.2 metres or 2 to 4 feet.
Weather Forecast for St. Kitts and Nevis: Generally settled atmospheric conditions will prevail across the area over the next 24 hours, during which, shallow patches of low level clouds will continue to move across the islands.
Weather tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent or slight chance of brief showers.
Weather tomorrow: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of afternoon showers.
