WILL PAM SURVIVE?

by James McCall

At the onset, I wish to go on record, congratulating Dr. Terrence Drew and his colleagues for having won the election of Friday August 5th 2022. That said, in the ensuing portions of this piece, I will be focusing my attention on what led to the results of Friday’s poll.

On May 22nd, 2022, I published a piece on this platform, entitled: “Kittitians Will Strike A Blow That Will Stun P.A.M.” Now, following Friday’s poll, few would disagree that that blow has been struck and PAM has every reason to be stunned, unless the bravado they exhibited ahead of polling day, was all in an effort at pretending not to be aware of the proverbial elephant in the room.

As a member of Team Unity, PAM had a good thing going, being next in line for its leader, Shawn Richards, to assume the mantle of prime minister, a mere three years down the road. In another article, published on May 2nd, 2022, under the heading: “Is Shawn Richards A Leader Or A Follower?”, I endeavoured to lay out the timetable of succession by suggesting that, had Shawn waited, he would have been Prime Minister in three years’ time and, if all things would have gone as planned, he would have held the reins for two terms (10 years), meaning that he would defer to Mark Brantley by 2035. I further stated that: “Having celebrated a birthday in January, Mr. Brantley is currently 53 years of age, meaning that in 13 years, he will be all of 66 years old.” I felt then, as I still do, that Mr. Brantley did not see himself ever having those reins in his grasp and may have thought that upsetting the applecart at this juncture would have given him the option, thus the move to hurriedly fire off an undated letter to the Governor General, claiming to have had sufficient support to force the GG’s hand in disappointing Dr. Harris and appointing one of them.

Clearly, Mr. Brantley saw no possibility of becoming Prime Minister anytime soon so a plan was concocted and, regardless of any results that were being demanded, they would follow through. On April 26th, 2022, my cousin, the inimitable Lorna Callender, published an article in which she said: “The rapidity with which the blaming duo are making their moves indicate that they are moving according to a plan irrespective of what responses the prime minister gives. The way they put self before country indicates that this is a power play and money not people is being put first.” Bear in mind that she was referring to the fact that the Prime Minister had been served with a multi-point letter and that he responded with an effective response to each point, but the situation continued to snowball.

To his credit, the Prime Minister refused to capitulate and moved in a manner that neither of them expected. He fired six ministers, namely:
• Shawn Richards
• Lindsay Grant
• Jonel Powell
• Mark Brantley
• Eric Evelyn
• Alexis Jeffers
Thereupon, and resorted to running the government with all the portfolios divided between himself, Eugene Hamilton and Wendy Phipps. As such, if either Mark Brantley or Shawn Richards wanted to become Prime Minister, they had as good an opportunity on August 5th, but failed most miserably.

At the end of the day, the people of St. Kitts in particular, spoke with a resounding voice, returning control of Church Street to the SKNLP and relegating PAM, PLP and CCM to “the other side”. So, as it now stands, what was once a united bloc in government will be nothing more than a cacophony on the opposition benches, having allowed what now appear to have been non-existent issues to now force them to sit together in an arrangement that neither of them will enjoy.

As I said, I will be focusing on PAM and, to do that, will look back a bit. Let’s start at, say, 1995, at which point Labour retook the government, after 15 years. Let’s zero in on PAM’s vote tallies over the years:
1995 7,530
2000 6,468
2004 7,161
2010 8,607
2015 8,452
2020 7,755
2022 4,425

As these figures show, until this past Friday, the least PAM ever received was 6,468, which was in 2000. This time, however, all they mustered was 4,425, which just happens to be fewer than even PLP received. PLP received a total 4,765. In other words, even when PAM had no seats in Parliament (2000 – 2004), it was able to garner more votes (6,468) than it did with four members in Parliament this time around.

Further analysis would show that, in 2015 and 2020, PAM garnered 8,452 and 7,755 votes respectively, while fielding candidates in only five constituencies, whereas this time around, they fielded candidates in all eight constituencies on St. Kitts. To break it down even further, the average number of votes per candidate in 2015 was 1690.4 and in 2020, it was 1551. This time, however, 4,425 votes spread across eight candidates would produce an average of only 553.13.

Here, in a nutshell, is how PAM compares with the other parties:
PARTY VOTES/2022 AVERAGE
Labour 12,907 1,613
CCM 3,510 1,170
NRP 2,232 744
PLP 4,765 596
PAM 4,425 553

PAM did not pay attention to Eugene Hamilton who, in a letter to Shawn, said: ”…I see no clear path for a return of the PAM representatives to Parliament if Parliament is dissolved now as a consequence of our resignations…” Hamilton further stated: “I have not hidden my fears. I have told you and others where I stand and I am saying here again for the record that an election at this time is a loss of [Constituency No.] 8 by any PAM candidate. If you are satisfied given what both Lindsay and Jonel have said, then you are prepared to accept PAM just having one seat which is your seat. I do not understand your plan and I would be unwise to accept without more.”

One of the most poignant statements in Mr. Hamilton’s letter, was this: “To me, the possibility of being reduced to one seat would be tantamount to driving a harpoon through the heart of PAM which I have given my life to.”

Clearly, no one listened; no one cared because, the moves being made, continued, leading eventually to the dissolution of Parliament and to fresh elections. Just like Hamilton predicted, Constituency No. 8 was lost and the person who won that seat is now the Prime Minister of the Federation. Other results have highlighted the prophetic nature of Mr. Hamilton’s words in that, out of four seats going into the election, Shawn’s is the only one that PAM retained and that, too, could be in danger of being lost next time around, because his numbers, particularly this year’s, are not great:
YEAR TOTAL
2004 1,005
2010 1,128
2015 1,245
2020 1,296
2022 892
When you would have been on an upward trajectory and, all of a sudden, your number is down more than 30% from last time around; and when the total votes cast against you exceed yours, you have reason to worry. The combined total received by PLP’s and Labor’s candidates, was 905, exceeding Shawn’s 892, if only by a few.

One recalls that PAM’s co-founder, The Rt. Excellent, Sir Kennedy Simmonds, in a speech delivered just days ahead of the election, offered the opinion that if Shawn had not made the move, at the time he made it, there would have been no PAM. While I have no interest in criticizing or castigating the good gentleman, the question that he now has to grapple with is whether or not there will be a PAM after the mauling it has just received. Can PAM survive this series of missteps and unforced errors that led to its dismal performance?